健康・医療情報学ジャーナル

Modeling National Trends on Health in the Philippines using ARIMA

Abstract

Florence Jean Talirongan*, Hidear Talirongan, Markdy Y. Orong

Health is a very important prerequisite in people’s well-being and happiness. Several studies were more focused on presenting the occurrence on specific disease like forecasting the number of dengue and malaria cases. This paper utilized the time series data for trend analysis and data forecasting using ARIMA model to visualize the trends of health data on the ten leading causes of deaths, leading cause of morbidity and leading cause of infants’ deaths particularly in the Philippines presented in a tabular data. Figures for each disease trend are presented individually with the use of the GRETL software. Result forecasted that after fourteen years, among the ten leading causes of death, disease of the heart rank first and the last is certain conditions originating in perinatal period; for the leading cause of morbidity, acute respiratory infection is the most vulnerable and tuberculosis (TB) other forms is the least vulnerable; and for the leading cause of infant’s death, first in order is the all causes and the last in rank is diarrhea and gastroenteritis of presumed infectious origin. Future research work will focus on the measles and chickenpox trends and predictions utilizing another algorithms for trend analysis and forecasting.