水文学: 現在の研究

Application of the HEC-HMS Model for Runoff Simulation of Upper Blue Nile River Basin

Abstract

Sintayehu Legesse Gebre

Hydrological models have been used in different River basins across the world for better understanding of the hydrological processes and the water resources availability. It is important to use hydrological model today to assess and predict the water availability of river basins due to climate change to develop a strategies in order to cope up with the changing environment. It is very crucial to properly calibrate and validate models to give confidence to model users in prediction of stream flow. In this study HEC-HMS 3.5 hydrologic model (Developed by US Hydrologic Engineering Center-SMA (with Soil moisture Accounting Algorithm) has been used to calibrate (from 1988-2000) and validate (from 2001-2005) the upper Blue Nile River Basin (Gilgel Abay, Gumera, Ribb and Megech catchment). The model performance tested for each catchment in simulation the runoff flow during calibration and validation period, The Nash-Sutcliff (ENS) and Coefficient of determination (R2) used to evaluate the performance of the model. The results obtained are satisfactory and accepted for simulation of runoff. The deficit and constant loss method, synder unit hydrograph method and exponential recession method, are the best fit performed methods of the hydrological processes of infiltration loss, direct runoff transformation and base flow part respectively. Thus, this study shows that HEC-HMS hydrological model can be used to model the upper Blue Nile River basin catchments for better assessment and prediction of simulation of the hydrological responses. The study recommends further studies which incorporate the land use change of the basin in the model.